Kaduna: El-Rufai and burden of re-election

                                            

Barely two years to the next general elections, unfolding intrigues that fan public  scepticism  and uncertainty  toward 2019 elections have already placed a burden on Kaduna State governor, Mallam Nasir Ahmed El-Rufai.
El-Rufai, the present occupant of Kaduna state’s Sir Kashim Ibrahim Government Hhouse is a hero  to some politicians in the state and  villain to some strong opponents .
His glaring achievements  vis a-vis the projects he is embarking on are sending a signal that the man is making a difference and changing the face of Kaduna State.
Analysts argue that El-Rufai  appears to be the only governor apart from Abdulkadir Balarabe Musa  that  is investing so much in physical and human development. The thinking in many quarters especially among his supporters is that his efforts will prepare grounds for him to continue in 2019 if he chooses to re-contest.
Malam Ibrahim Murtala who is an active politician and strong member of the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), said “ You don’t have to be told what El-Rufai is doing in Kaduna State; come and see roads being constructed, water supply projects, education and Health; in fact,  El-Rufai is doing what  past governors failed to do’’.
In the same vein, Hajia  Maimuna Musa who  was a  former  chairperson of the defunct  All Progressives Party in Kaduna state said “ let me tell you , El-Rufai is a workaholic, you cannot fault his service delivery;  the projects he is doing  are an indictment to  past governors; they only steal money but never construct a single 29 kilometre road, his opponents are shameless’’.
But many of El-Rufai’s opponents especially within his party, APC believe that he has failed to meet the expectations of the people in terms of the delivery of democracy dividends. For them the chances of the governor securing a re-election in 2019 remain very bleak. In their estimation, there is a dark cloud hanging precariously over El-Rufai’s chances to the Kaduna Government house because of what they perceive as his bad style of leadership.
Already, what appears to be a formidable group of progressives from both the Northern and Southern parts of the state have vowed to stop the governor in his tracks for what they term an ‘open plot to turn the state’s party machinery into his private estate by refusing to allow the constitutional processes that would see to the emergence of a substantive party leadership’.
Several other formations that include politicians, workers and a cross section of the civil society have also taken to the social media to challenge many of the government’s policies, which they describe as anti-people. Viral questions are being raised about El-Rufai’s unfulfilled promises that include his promise to establish the biggest poultry farm in Africa, known as OLAM,  establishment of  a shopping mall and 5000 housing units at millennium city, for which nothing is yet to be heard.
His critics also question the veracity of  El-Rufai’s claim that  the state has commenced  the conversion of sugarcane into ethanol (bio-fuel) and also criticize his claim that the state has a large deposit of Nickel and that Birnin Gwari Local Government in the state has more deposit of Gold than South Africa, all of which turned out to be fake.
Another major flaw militating against the El-Rufai government is its handling of the Shiite crisis even though the administration might not be directly responsible for the alleged killing of over 300 Shiite members of the Islamic Movement of Nigeria(IMN) by soldiers. There are those who insist that the state government’s handling of events after the December 2015 incident fell short of acceptable standard.
Part of El-Rufai’s headaches ahead of the next general elections would be the questions begging for answers over the state government’s handling of the Southern Kaduna crisis. Many regret that despite the various peace initiatives of the state government, people, mainly local residents, are still being killed in that part of the state. The Christmas Day killing in Goska community despite a 24-hour curfew imposed on the area by the state government has since been condemned by Nigerians.
The governor escaped a mob action during one of his visits to Kafanchan as residents accused him of not doing enough to protect them.
There is also the controversy around the staff verification exercise in which in an effort by the state government to remove ghost workers from the state civil service, some real workers reportedly lost their jobs. Some primary school teachers who served for many years were reportedly affected by the verification exercise.
The state government is also yet to bring an end to the activities of a dangerous group known as ‘Yan Shara’ across the state.
In the estimation of critical observers, all these are further compounded by the governor’s glaring lopsided appointments in favour of the northern part of the state, particularly Zaria, at the expense of other sections.
“ His appointments, to be honest, and indeed even his style of distribution of services are anything but fair. Most of his appointees for instance are not only from the northern part but principally concentrated in Kaura ward of Zaria local government where he claimed to have come from. He has forgotten too early that his winning votes came from all sections of the state.
“ He has also failed to deliver in almost all of his campaign promises forgetting that the key to maintaining power is keeping those promises. In 2015, El-Rufai and his campaigners promised to cure the ills of society including illiteracy, disease, unemployment, and poverty. Many supporters and independent voters alike got caught up in a sort of mass delusion of inflated expectations. They hoped for urgent results from his administration. When the results failed to materialize, they began to react with outrage and contempt, and here’s why: About two years after he was elected, he has failed to bring about the promised vast improvements in health, education, employment, infrastructure, the civil service and the economy. He has failed to deliver even at the local level, from where he extracted most of his votes after promising to improve specific problems that the people care about the most,” said Alhaji Abdul-Azeez Suleiman, leader of the Northern Emancipation Network.
Analysts argue that instances of his reluctance to strongly relate with the grassroots, his obvious contempt for workers, reckless and hurtful statements about politicians (the infamous Kufena hills metaphor) and his general bully persona are impacting the state for the worse.  The calculation is that politicians likely to challenge him are therefore sure to capitalize on the growing angry mood of disillusioned voters in the state and to simply base their campaign on the premise that they would fulfill a new set of realistic promises.
So far, about four blocs are believed to be in the fore for the Kaduna top job, emboldened by El-Rufai’s latest public gaffe that governing a state is the worst job in Nigeria, interpreted as a veiled admission of failure to cope.
These blocs represent the interests of former Governor Ramalan Yero, Senator Shehu Sani, Alhaji Isah Ashiru and Dr Muhammed Sani Bello.
Yero’s threat, analysts believe, might be of little or no significance as according to them, in the present circumstances, it will require much more than his political ingenuity to be able to turn the PDP’s fortunes in the state around.
One of those also being mentioned is Senator Sani who is widely viewed as a non-starter as far as calculations for the Kaduna governorship seat is concerned. Political observers say his reach is basically limited to confined areas of just one out of the three senatorial districts that define the state’s political landscape.  There is also Dr Sani Bello who despite having an impressive CV, his chances are as gloomy as El-Rufai’s in view of his elite background.
“The typical Kaduna voter is quite unlikely to risk another chance with a politician that is seen to be out of tune with grassroots realities after his bitter experiment with El-Rufai. Dr Bello is also categorised among those labelled as Abuja politicians – and this will be his undoing,” said one analyst.
Another factor is former House of Representatives member, Isah Ashiru, fondly called ‘Mai Solar,’ who is widely viewed as a grassroots player actively involved with both rural and urban politics.
“By his style, Ashiru is best known in his career through his success in people-oriented politics. From the earliest stages in his career, Ashiru took his constituency one person at a time with the capacity to convince people that their concern, no matter how small it might seem to other people, was the most important thing in the world to him. Ashiru’s mastery of grassroots politics proved to be very helpful to his political career at a later point. His unique style of getting to know people on the most personal level that he could, paid off greatly in his climb to the top,” explained Alhaji Dogara Madaki, a youth leader from Kagoro in the southern part of the state.